Key Takeaways
- Polymarket forecasts a 35% probability of Solana ETF approval by July 31, 2025.
- Major financial institutions like VanEck and Grayscale continue to pursue Solana ETF applications despite regulatory challenges.
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Prediction market platform Polymarket has reduced the odds of a Solana ETF approval before July 31, reaching a low of 35%, from a peak of 76% recorded on December 8.
The decline follows a period of heightened regulatory scrutiny and ongoing legal challenges, including the SEC’s classification of Solana (SOL) as a security in current lawsuits.
This designation has created additional complexity for aligning Solana-based products with existing regulatory frameworks.
Despite the decreased probability, major financial institutions maintain their pursuit of Solana ETF approvals.
VanEck, Grayscale, and 21Shares have active applications pending, with initial SEC decision deadlines approaching later this month.
VanEck’s Head of Research Matthew Sigel suggests that current market odds underestimate the likelihood of approval, citing progress in bipartisan regulatory developments.
Initial optimism surrounding the appointment of Paul Atkins as SEC Chair and expectations of a crypto-friendly Trump administration has been tempered by recent delays in regulatory decision-making.
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